National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --120FXUS61 KGYX 030719AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME319 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure builds in from the north through Tuesday formostly fair weather outside of a few afternoon showers bothdays. Temperatures will run above normal through mid week withafternoon sea breezes bringing cooler conditions to the coast.A trough approaches from the west Wednesday and will linger nearNew England through the end of the week for unsettledconditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low south ofNova Scotia with the 00Z model suite suggesting this low willnot move much today. The mid level ridge axis that was overheadyesterday has weakened and shifted westward. The lack of midlevel ridging and a surface trough associated with the upper lowwill bring low chances for afternoon showers today with thehighest PoPs over the mountains and foothills. Otherwise, itwill be a mostly fair weather day with a mix of clouds and sunand light winds. Highs will range from the 70s across Maine tothe mid 80s across western and southern NH. A sea breeze willlikely develop by early afternoon keeping coastal areas closerto 70 degrees for highs.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Any shower activity should dissipate this evening. Skies will bemostly clear across northern and western zones with more cloudsalong the coastal plain. Onshore flow through today into tonightwill also bring the potential for patchy fog along the coastalplain. Lows tonight will generally be in the low 50s.The upper low south of Nova Scotia is forecast to move slowlyinto the Atlantic with a surface high sliding south over theforecast area into the Gulf of Maine by Tuesday evening. Anothermostly fair weather day is expected with the exception beingbuilding instability near the CT Valley leading to a fewafternoon showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s withcooler readings near the coast and temperatures climbing intothe low 80s along the CT Valley.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Overview: Downstream low pressure will slowly move northward,allowing a return to unsettled weather for much of the remainderof the week. Chances for showers will start to increase Wednesdayonwards. Daytime temperatures remain around normal, withovernight lows expected to be mild.Details: Tuesday night, upper moisture will dive out of Quebecand move across ME and NH. This coinciding with retreat of thedownstream low will slowly saturate the column for showerchances across the interior Wed afternoon. Remains uncertaintyon amounts and coverage, but PWATs should push above one inchduring the afternoon with building instability to developshowers or even some storms. This will occur ahead of deepermoisture arriving in the Northeast into Thursday.Upper low will tumble across the Great Lakes Thursday intoFriday. This will keep unsettled, rainy conditions in the areaperhaps into early next week. The concern here would be therepeated chances for slow moving showers or storms during theday. NBM mean brings some central areas close to 2 inches ofmeasurable precip through next Wednesday, and this isntcapturing the convective nature some of these repeat showers maycontain. So considering the deeper PWATs, slow storm motion, andresidence time of the upper low, would expect the chance forbuilding excessive rainfall that could eventually cause floodingconcerns. Will need to keep an eye just how prevalentprecipitation trends amid this pattern, as this can be a talltask for guidance.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...Mainly VFR today with a few afternoon showerspossibly impacting KAUG and KHIE. Onshore flow today intotonight will bring the threat for low cigs along the coastalplain and possibly some fog leading to a period of MVFR/IFRearly Tuesday morning. Mainly VFR conditions on Tuesday with theexception of afternoon showers possibly impacting KLEB and KHIE.Long Term...Coastal fog may develop overnight into Wednesdaymorning, with SHRA expected across the interior terminalsWednesday afternoon. Unsettled conditions are expected for thesecond half of the week, which means lower ceilings amid SHRA orperhaps TS during afternoons.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.MARINE...
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Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholdstoday through Tuesday. A weak gradient over the waters willallow for afternoon sea breezes to develop with high pressureeventually settling over the waters Tuesday evening. Patchy fogis also possible over the waters late tonight into Tuesdaymorning.Long Term...Below SCA conditions are forecast, but fog may bein vicinity mid to late week as high pressure exits and lowpressure nears late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...None.MARINE...None.&&$$NEAR TERM...SchroeterSHORT TERM...SchroeterLONG TERM...Cornwell